Don't blink!

Don't blink, or you'll miss at least a dozen major changes to Egypt's presidential race!

When I wrote about this topic earlier this month, the issue of Abu Ismail's eligibility to run had just surfaced. A few days later, I listened to him speak to supporters at a local mosque as he denied in absolute terms the veracity of the election commission's claim that his mother had held American citizenship, and accused the Egyptian, American and Israeli governments of conspiring to prevent Islamists from coming to power.

A week later, the election commission announced that Abu Ismail was officially being disqualified from the race along with nine other candidates including former Vice President Omar Suleiman and Muslim Brotherhood-backed Kheirat al Shater (both of whose candidacies came as a surprise in the first place!). Disqualified candidates had 48 hours to appeal the decision, but none of the rulings were changed. Most candidates resolved themselves to this fate, but Abu Ismail has continued to fight it.

Since that initial ruling, Abu Ismail supporters began a sit-in outside the electoral court in Heliopolis, which some reports claim forced an early adjournment of the court to protect the security of the judge. The Abu Ismaili chants are partisan and/or religious: "the people want Hazem Abu Ismail," "the people want the application of sharia Allah," but also popular: "down, down with military rule." Perhaps most discomforting, some of them have been waving the black "flag of jihad" and some leaders have made and then retracted statements to the effect of: we have tens of thousands of supporters willing to die for us. Most of this is posturing, but it's still unnerving.

A year ago, these Salafis were condemning the revolution as an immoral act of rebellion against the ruler (they're very big on obedience) and defaming elections as forbidden because they place the people's will above that of God. Then they started forming political parties like Al Nour and Al Wasat, which won a significant number of seats in the parliament. Seemingly pleased with their electoral success, two Salafi candidates for president emerged.

More than their radical positions on Christian and women's rights, the peace treaty with Israel, tourism, etc, most people seem frustrated with this blatant hypocrisy, which can also be found in the Muslim Brotherhood. Wisely fearing a backlash from liberals and foreign governments, the Brotherhood promised early on not to field a candidate for president and even kicked out a member for declaring his candidacy (Aboul Fotouh, who is now a front runner). Then it decided to run not one but two candidates (one of whom has since been disqualified)! Now everyone is questioning the Brotherhood's true intentions, and the tide may be turning to the ousted Aboul Fotouh or Amr Moussa, a former Mubarak minister.

At the same time, nearly all the political forces have rallied around what might be considered the most significant achievement of the post-revolution era thus far: the political disenfranchisement law, which prevents top members of the Mubarak regime from running for office for 10 years. This should have been in place from the beginning, but the straw the broke the camel's back was the entrance of Omar Suleiman (former VP and intelligence chief) into the race. (It seems he entered the race in response to the Brotherhood's entrance, to combat the "Islamist takeover.")

For the past two Fridays, thousands of people filled Tahrir to protest the candidacy of Suleiman as well as Ahmed Shafiq, a long-time minister and the prime minister during the revolution's deadliest battles. While both Fridays' protests had a mix of the political spectrum, the long beards, galabiyas and niqaabs of the Islamists dominated the square. They have begun a semi-sit-in, with part of the square blocked from traffic by a huge stage that chants day and night in favor of Abu Ismail and sharia Allah. The atmosphere is quite different from last July's sit-in which was dominated by liberals, secularists and more generally, Cairenes.

More on that atmosphere in my next post tomorrow, the day that the final, definitive list of presidential candidates is announced.